CS2 Alchemy BenchCS2 Trade-Up Contracts, Priced From Real Listings
Positive-EV trade-up contracts ranked from live BUFF / ECO / C5 listings. Every row is verified against the current ranking snapshot: 10 inputs, exact output odds, deterministic floats, and the cost you would actually pay.
Desktop client (Windows, Chinese UI) See rankings
Today's positive-EV trade-ups
Sorted by ROI. Costs are in CNY because the source listings are CNY marketplaces; marketplace fees and resale slippage are not included. Click-through analysis and a full calculator are in development.
| # | Type | Rarity | Target collection | Fillers | Cost | EV | ROI | Break-even | Best output | Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Arabesque Collection | The Safehouse Collection + The Achroma Collection | ¥1.43 | ¥2.21 | 54.5% | 70.0% | Tec-9 | Sultan | 372 |
| 2 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Arabesque Collection | The Achroma Collection + The Radiant Collection | ¥1.26 | ¥1.94 | 53.8% | 61.7% | Tec-9 | Sultan | 372 |
| 3 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The 2018 Nuke Collection | The Achroma Collection | ¥1.37 | ¥2.08 | 51.9% | 22.5% | AWP | Acheron | 627 |
| 4 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The 2018 Nuke Collection | — | ¥1.47 | ¥2.22 | 51.2% | 25.0% | AWP | Acheron | 713 |
| 5 | Normal | Consumer Grade | The 2018 Inferno Collection | The Boreal Collection + The Harlequin Collection | ¥0.35 | ¥0.53 | 51.0% | 64.7% | Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite | 658 |
| 6 | Normal | Consumer Grade | The Ascent Collection | The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Safehouse Collection | ¥0.63 | ¥0.94 | 48.4% | 76.1% | Glock-18 | Ocean Topo | 553 |
| 7 | Normal | Consumer Grade | The 2018 Inferno Collection | The Boreal Collection + The Radiant Collection | ¥0.35 | ¥0.52 | 47.7% | 66.7% | Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite | 639 |
| 8 | Normal | Consumer Grade | The Ascent Collection | The Dust 2 Collection + The Safehouse Collection | ¥0.63 | ¥0.92 | 46.0% | 63.2% | Glock-18 | Ocean Topo | 553 |
| 9 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Harlequin Collection | The Ascent Collection | ¥2.52 | ¥3.58 | 42.2% | 51.0% | Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane | 501 |
| 10 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Harlequin Collection | The Dust 2 Collection + The Italy Collection | ¥2.53 | ¥3.59 | 41.8% | 50.0% | Glock-18 | Candy Apple | 279 |
| 11 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Radiant Collection | The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Italy Collection | ¥1.80 | ¥2.54 | 41.3% | 55.0% | Glock-18 | Candy Apple | 279 |
| 12 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Boreal Collection | The Harlequin Collection + The Dust 2 Collection | ¥2.31 | ¥3.23 | 40.0% | 53.3% | AK-47 | Wintergreen | 530 |
| 13 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Boreal Collection | The Harlequin Collection + The Ascent Collection | ¥2.41 | ¥3.37 | 39.8% | 58.0% | AK-47 | Wintergreen | 501 |
| 14 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Radiant Collection | The Achroma Collection + The Lake Collection | ¥0.76 | ¥1.06 | 39.0% | 76.7% | AWP | Arsenic Spill | 545 |
| 15 | Normal | Consumer Grade | The Harlequin Collection | The Bank Collection + The Radiant Collection | ¥0.31 | ¥0.42 | 36.6% | 66.0% | G3SG1 | Green Apple | 366 |
| 16 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Safehouse Collection | The Radiant Collection | ¥1.12 | ¥1.49 | 32.7% | 33.3% | SSG 08 | Acid Fade | 453 |
| 17 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Achroma Collection | The Radiant Collection | ¥0.74 | ¥0.98 | 32.5% | 91.7% | AWP | Arsenic Spill | 627 |
| 18 | Normal | Industrial Grade | The Safehouse Collection | The Radiant Collection + The Ascent Collection | ¥1.18 | ¥1.56 | 32.0% | 30.0% | SSG 08 | Acid Fade | 453 |
| 19 | Normal | Consumer Grade | The Lake Collection | The Nuke Collection | ¥14.60 | ¥19.01 | 30.2% | 10.0% | XM1014 | Fallout Warning | 29 |
| 20 | Normal | Consumer Grade | The Dust 2 Collection | The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Harlequin Collection | ¥0.70 | ¥0.91 | 30.0% | 80.0% | Tec-9 | VariCamo | 604 |
How the calculation works
A CS2 trade-up contract consumes 10 skins of one rarity and outputs one skin of the next rarity. The output collection is chosen from your 10 inputs, so outcome probability = (inputs from that collection ÷ 10) × (1 ÷ number of outcomes in that collection).
Output float is deterministic: each input float is normalized inside its own wear range, the ten normalized values are averaged, and the average is mapped onto the output skin's range. A Factory New input can still produce a Minimal Wear output.
We take the cheapest available listing for each input, sum the 10 prices as cost, value every possible output at its current listing price, multiply by probability, and subtract cost. ROI > 0 means positive expected value across many repetitions — not a guarantee for a single craft.
Get early access to the full calculator
The full version adds per-input float selection, exact listing depth, marketplace fee handling, and Steam/Skinport prices. Leave your email and we will notify you when it is ready.
FAQ
Is this really free?
Yes. The ranking and the basic calculator are free and require no account. The paid desktop client is a separate product for Chinese-market workflows.
Why are prices in CNY?
The listings are collected from BUFF, ECO and C5, which price in CNY. A converted USD view is coming with the international calculator.
Does it work with Steam Market or Skinport?
Steam Community Market has no official public price API, so support is planned rather than available today. Steam and Skinport data are on the roadmap for the international version.
Can I auto-buy materials?
Not in this web version. Auto-buy is available in the desktop client for Chinese marketplaces, subject to each platform's terms of service.